National Reconstruction Planning 
& Development Program
National Projects Selection 
& Prioritization Model

The following pages provide a partial summary outline the methodology and process model structure used to establish Lebanon's national recovery plan and investment program during the 1991-1993 period (as reviewed on the previous Lebanon Recovery Planning page of this site). Please note also that only selected sections of the model components are illustrated here.

Background: The Lebanese Council for Development and Reconstruction (CDR) was mandated by the national government  in late 1990, shortly after the Taif Accords which ended the civil war, to formulate a national recovery plan and detailed project and program investment and implementation program addressing all sectors, confessional groups and spatial areas within the country. Bechtel Corporation and Dar Al Handasah were invited to form a Joint Venture under contract to CDR to carry out this work.

Brief Overview
 Model Development and Applications

The national projects selection and prioritization model was developed by myself (Dr. J. Michael Cobb) and Dr. Robert Solomon, principles in charge, respectively, for the the Bechtel Corporation - Dar Al Handasah JV  contract with CDR. The model's structure, application and results, prior to approval by CDR and the Lebanese parliament, was also reviewed and approved by the World Bank's coordination group, a group invited by CDR, Bechtel and Dar, to monitor and provide coordination assistance to the reconstruction and recovery planning work.

The World Bank's approval of the process and results was essential to the reconstruction for two reasons: firstly, for obtaining the initial major umbrella loan thus providing the assurances required by other international donors and commercial lenders; and secondly, to provide a basis for reestablishing Lebanon's "on-cover" status with western government export credit agencies, an essential source for financing the recovery. 

I'm pleased to report that the Bechtel-Dar team model, together with other components of the reconstruction and recovery planning program, were successful in achieving World Bank approval and the Bank's initial follow-on loan approval of USD 175 million, and the reestablishment of Lebanon's on-cover status with western European export credit agencies. The model and results were also presented to the first Lebanese Recovery International's Donors Conference, held under the Paris Club umbrella.

The model was initially focused on identifying those most critical projects within the first three of years of emergency recovery, which are those essential to meeting crisis conditions as well as those essential to sustainable redevelopment. After conducting a national damage assessment of all sectors of the country, hundreds of project needs were identified. Employing the model resulted in 125 project "packages" for $ 4.2 embracing all sectors of the economy, including the institutional, ports, airport power and all utility systems, industrial and business support, community and many other program. 

Because of the limited institutional and financial capacity of the economy to absorb this amount of investment, the model results suggested reducing the initial three years program to USD 2.25 billion. For the longer term ten year reconstruction plan, the model indicated an an overall program investment needs of $12.9 billion for the from 1994 to 2004. The transport, power and education sectors together accounted for over half the ten year reconstruction needs, with transport receiving the largest share at almost $3 billion.

Please note:  Details related to the projects selection and prioritization model are proprietary, confidential and protected by copyright. For academic or research purposes, potential permission to review the model may be granted by sending an email to info@idcworld.com, with Lebanon Recovery Model Request in the subject line.


Copyright 2002-2010.  J Michael Cobb and 
IDC Int'l Development Consultants, LLC. 
All rights reserved.